Promise-Keeping Reputations in an Investment Game: An Experimental Investigation
Ninghua Du, Qun Zhao
投资博弈中的守诺声誉：一项实验研究
The “Zhang Xuefeng Effect”: Information Intervention and the College Admission Problem in China
Yutong Huo, Yun Wang
“张雪峰效应”： 信息干预与中国高校录取
Navigating ESG in the Artificial Intelligence Era: Evidence From AI Pilot Zones in China
Yujie Liu, Xinyi Shen
人工智能时代的ESG路径探索：来自中国人工智能试验区的证据
Soft Power in Trade: Quantifying the Impact of Confucius Institutes on China's Exports
Renjing Chen, Wei Jin, Tangrui Yang
贸易中的软实力：孔子学院对中国出口影响的量化研究
Housing Security, Relative Deprivation, and Subjective Well-Being: Empirical Evidence Derived From CFPS Data
Lingzhen Yao, Bei Qiao, Yuhan Hu
住房保障、相对剥夺感与主观幸福感：基于CFPS数据的实证证据
Always Be Prepared: Lessons Learned From Risk-Coping Strategies of Thai Households in the Wake of Two Major Economic Crises
Aeggarchat Sirisankanan, Papar Kananurak
时刻准备：泰国家庭应对两次重大经济危机的风险策略启示
Promise-Keeping Reputations in an Investment Game: An Experimental Investigation
Abstract: We design a controlled laboratory experiment to mitigate moral hazard problems in livestream shopping when sellers make promises to buyers. In our experiment, the promise-keeping reputation mechanism allows sellers to send promises to buyers while buyers can observe the sellers' historical promise-keeping records. Results demonstrate that bare promises under the mechanism significantly enhance trust and trustworthiness. Specifically, bare promises under the promise-keeping reputation mechanism can build trust quickly between buyers and sellers in the beginning; when sellers have a good reputation for promise-keeping, buyers will trust sellers more. When sellers' promise-keeping histories are not recorded, bare promises fail to enhance trust or trustworthiness, as buyers cannot distinguish between trustworthy sellers and opportunistic sellers.
投资博弈中的守诺声誉：一项实验研究
摘要：我们设计了一项受控实验室实验，以研究当卖方向买方作出承诺时，守诺声誉机制对于缓解道德风险问题的作用（现实情境如电商直播）。在我们的实验当中，守诺声誉机制允许卖方向买方发送承诺，同时买方能够观察卖方历史上的守诺记录。实验结果表明，在该机制下，空口承诺（bare promises）能够显著提升信任和可信赖度。具体而言，在守诺声誉机制下，空口承诺能够在交易初期快速建立买卖双方之间的信任；当卖方具有良好的守诺声誉时，买方会给予其更高程度的信任。当卖方的守诺历史未被记录时，空口承诺则无法有效提升信任和可信赖度，因为买方无法区分可信的卖方和机会主义的卖方。
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The “Zhang Xuefeng Effect”: Information Intervention and the College Admission Problem in China
Abstract: Information regarding the quality of colleges and labor-market prospects of majors plays an important role in parents' and students' school-choice decisions, particularly when these decisions are crucially relevant to the students' long-run career choices and life earnings. This paper studies the impact of information intervention under the current college admission system in China, exploring how access to college-major–related information affects students' preferences, thus resulting in changes to school majors' score lines, students' welfare, and industrial productivity. We consider a setting where there are a finite set of students and a finite set of schools, each school offering two majors featuring high or low labor-market returns. We find that the score lines for high-return majors rise, while those for low-return majors fall, primarily due to changes in preferences among some “pivotal” students in the admission process. Moreover, a majority of students benefit from information intervention, though some students experience welfare deterioration, and the distribution of such benefits and losses depends on students' types of preferences. Without school-prioritized preferences, more students can benefit, and students with higher scores will benefit more. When all students' preferences are school-prioritized, students with different scores benefit almost equally from the information intervention. Our findings offer insights for upgrading information consulting services and designing career-oriented college majors for China's college admission problems.
摘要：大学专业质量和劳动力市场前景的信息在家长和学生的择校决策中至关重要，尤其当这些决策与长期职业选择和收入相关时。本文基于匹配理论和轻推理论模型， 研究在平行志愿录取机制下信息干预对均衡结果的影响， 探讨了获取与高校专业相关信息后学生择校行为的改变，以及由此导致的学校专业分数线、学生福利和行业生产率的变化。 我们在传统择校匹配模型的基础上加入对学校专业的分类，以及引入信息干预。研究发现， 高回报专业的分数线上升，而低回报专业的分数线下降，这主要是由于一些“ 关键” 学生的偏好变化所致。 此外，大多数学生能够从信息干预中获益，尽管部分学生的福利水平可能下降， 这种福利变动方向在不同群体中的差异取决于学生的偏好类型。在非学校优先偏好的情况下，更多的学生能够从中受益，且分数较高的学生获益更多。当所有学生的偏好均为学校优先时，不同分数段学生的福利几乎同等地受到信息干预的影响。
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Navigating ESG in the Artificial Intelligence Era: Evidence From AI Pilot Zones in China
Abstract: Artificial intelligence is reshaping business models, but limited literature explores how ESG evolves in the AI era. This paper regards AI Pilot Zones in China as a quasi-natural experiment, and adopts the DID approach to investigate its impact on corporate ESG performance. Using the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2022, we find that the AI policy significantly enhances ESG performance. The AI policy improves ESG through promoting corporate AI applications, reducing information asymmetry, and easing financing constraints. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the policy effects are more pronounced for firms in regions with high institutional quality, non-state-owned enterprises, and non-high-tech enterprises. Then, we provide evidence supporting the moderating roles of government AI focus and public attention. Finally, further analyses provide granular evidence of corporate environmental and social practices.
人工智能时代的ESG路径探索：来自中国人工智能试验区的证据
摘要：人工智能正在重塑商业模式，但现有文献较少探讨人工智能时代下ESG（环境、社会与治理）的发展变化。本文将国家新一代人工智能创新发展试验区视为一项准自然实验，采用双重差分法（DID）考察其对上市公司ESG表现的影响。基于2016—2022年中国A股上市公司样本，研究发现AI政策显著提升了企业ESG表现。进一步分析表明，该政策通过促进企业人工智能应用、降低信息不对称程度以及缓解融资约束来改善ESG。异质性分析表明，在制度质量较高地区的企业、非国有企业以及非高科技企业中，政策效果更加显著。此外，本文还提供了政府AI关注度和公众关注度发挥调节作用的经验证据。最后，进一步分析为企业在环境与社会实践方面的具体表现提供了更细颗粒度的证据。
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Soft Power in Trade: Quantifying the Impact of Confucius Institutes on China's Exports
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of Confucius Institutes (CIs) as a form of China's cultural diplomacy and their impact on international trade, particularly exports. Using a gravity model, we analyze data from 1990 to 2019 across countries, finding that the presence of CIs significantly boosts China's exports. Robustness checks confirm this effect across various specifications, including imports and sector-level data. Mechanism analysis reveals that CIs enhance China's image, increasing trade by fostering positive perceptions abroad. The study further identifies pronounced trade effects in high-income nations, and regions with shorter cultural distance from China. Our findings suggest that cultural output via Confucius Institutes not only advances China's soft power but also serves as a strategic tool to promote trade globally, with differentiated goods benefiting the most.
贸易中的软实力：
孔子学院对中国出口影响的量化研究
摘要：本文探讨孔子学院作为中国文化外交的一种形式所发挥的作用，及其对国际贸易特别是中国出口的影响。运用引力模型，我们分析了1990-2019年跨国面板数据，发现孔子学院的设立显著促进了中国出口。稳健性检验在不同设定下（包括进口层面和行业层面数据）均证实了这一结论。机制分析表明，孔子学院通过提升中国国家形象，增进海外对中国正面认知，从而促进了贸易增长。研究进一步识别出，在高收入国家以及与中华文化距离较短的地区，贸易促进效应更为显著。研究结果表明，以孔子学院为载体的文化输出不仅增强了中国的软实力，也构成了推动全球贸易的战略工具，其中差异化产品受益最为明显。
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Housing Security, Relative Deprivation, and Subjective Well-Being: Empirical Evidence Derived From CFPS Data
Abstract: The housing issue significantly influences individuals' well-being. As a crucial mechanism for alleviating the housing issue, the housing security system has garnered increasing attention regarding its impact on residents' happiness. Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper seeks to thoroughly investigate the effect of housing security on residents' subjective well-being and examine the mediating role and regulatory mechanisms of relative deprivation, particularly concerning income and consumption factors. The findings reveal that (1) compared to uninsured families, those with access to housing security experience a marked enhancement in overall happiness levels, indicating that the housing security system exerts a positive marginal effect on improving happiness among covered households. (2) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the beneficial impact of housing security on subjective well-being is consistent across various age groups, with the most pronounced effects observed in individuals aged 26–40. For households facing low housing affordability, there exists a significantly positive correlation between housing security and subjective well-being—this relationship is even stronger than indicated by baseline regression results. Regional analyses demonstrate that housing security positively affects residents' subjective well-being in eastern and central China but negatively impacts those in western regions; notably, this effect is significant only for eastern Chinese residents. (3) Further exploration revealed that first, housing security substantially mitigates families' sense of income relative deprivation which subsequently enhances their subjective well-being; second, after controlling for household consumption disparities, we observe an increase in the coefficient associated with housing security compared to baseline regression outcomes—suggesting that differences in household consumption may attenuate the positive influence of housing security on happiness. This research not only elucidates the tangible effects of existing housing policies but also provides empirical evidence and theoretical support for government efforts aimed at formulating more precise policies designed to enhance residents' satisfaction.
住房保障、相对剥夺感与主观幸福感：
基于CFPS数据的实证证据
摘要： 住房问题显著影响居民福祉。住房保障制度作为缓解住房问题的关键机制，其对居民幸福感的影响日益受到关注。本文利用中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS），深入考察住房保障对居民主观幸福感的作用，并探究相对剥夺感的调节作用和调控机制，尤其关注收入与消费因素。研究发现：(1) 与未获得保障的家庭相比，享有住房保障的家庭整体幸福水平显著提升，表明住房保障制度对保障覆盖家庭的主观幸福感具有正向边际效应。(2) 异质性分析表明，住房保障对主观幸福感的积极影响在不同年龄段具有一致性，其中在26-40岁群体中最为显著。对于住房支付能力较低的家庭而言，住房保障与主观幸福感之间存在显著的正相关关系，该关系强度甚至高于基准回归结果。区域分析表明，住房保障对东部和中部地区居民的主观幸福感具有正向影响，但对西部地区居民产生负向影响；值得注意的是，该效应仅在东部地区居民中显著。(3) 进一步探究发现：首先，住房保障显著缓解了家庭的收入相对剥夺感，进而提升了其主观幸福感；其次，在控制家庭消费差异后，住房保障的回归系数相较于基准结果有所增大，表明家庭消费差异可能弱化了住房保障对幸福感的正向影响。本研究不仅厘清了现有住房政策的实际效应，也为政府制定更精准的提升居民满意度的政策提供了实证证据与理论支持。
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Always Be Prepared: Lessons Learned From Risk-Coping Strategies of Thai Households in the Wake of Two Major Economic Crises
Abstract: This paper aimed to comparatively examine the function of three risk-coping strategies, namely savings, borrowings, and work-hour adjustments, during two major economic crises in Thailand. Using the Socioeconomic Survey (SES) collected by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in Thailand, we examined data from the 1998 financial crisis and the 2021 COVID-19 outbreak. The empirical methods were the two-step estimation method and the income decomposition technique, with an emphasis on correcting an endogeneity problem with an instrumental variable approach. The results showed that risk-coping strategies respond more strongly to income shocks during crisis periods than in noncrisis periods. Borrowing was the most important risk-coping strategy, followed by work-hour adjustments employed by Thai households to smooth their consumption against transitory income shocks caused by unemployment in crisis and noncrisis periods. On the contrary, we found that Thai households are less prudent.
时刻准备：泰国家庭应对两次重大经济危机的风险策略启示
摘要： 本文旨在比较研究储蓄、借贷与工时调整三种风险应对策略在泰国两次重大经济危机期间的作用。利用泰国国家统计局开展的社会经济调查数据，我们考察了1998年金融危机与2021年新冠疫情期间的相关数据。实证方法采用两步估计法与收入分解技术，并着重通过工具变量法纠正内生性问题。结果表明，风险应对策略在危机时期对收入冲击的反应强于非危机时期。借贷是最重要的风险应对策略，其次是工时调整——泰国家庭运用这两种方式平滑消费，以应对危机与非危机时期因失业导致的暂时性收入冲击。与之相反，我们发现泰国家庭的审慎程度相对不足。
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