ISE 2023年第3期

Abstract: There has been heated debate regarding credit-rating agencies' (CRAs') reporting accuracy of corporate credit ratings, which is essential for investors because they rely on those crediting ratings to make investment decisions. We estimate the reporting accuracy using the data on corporate ratings from Standard & Poor from January 1986 to December 2011. First, there is a U-shape in the overall misreporting pattern: the left-hand side (the high-rating groups) has a lower misreporting probability (3%), the middle has no misreporting, and the right-hand side has a high misreporting probability (6%). Second, we find that there is a significant difference across the industries. The financial sector has the highest misreporting probability (35% in the lowest rating group) and misreporting magnitude (rating rank jump between true rating and reported rating), and the energy industry has the lowest misreporting probability. Last, when the economic condition is good, CRAs are likelier to inflate the rating.

企业信用评级中误报概率的估测：非参数方法

摘要：信用评级机构（CRAs）对企业信用评级报告的准确性一直是热议话题，原因是投资者依赖这些信用评级做出投资决策，因而报告准确性对投资者至关重要。我们利用标准普尔1986 年1月至2011年12月的企业评级数据对评级准确性进行了估测。首先，总体误报模式呈U型：左侧（高评级组）误报概率较低（3%），中间没有误报，右侧误报概率较高（6%）。其次，我们发现不同行业之间的误报率存在显著差异。金融行业的误报概率（最低评级组中的 35%）和误报幅度（真实评级与报告评级之间的评级排名跳跃）最高，而能源行业的误报概率最低。最后，当经济状况良好时，评级机构更容易夸大评级。

Supply chains and risk premia in Chinese stock market: A sorted-portfolio approach

Abstract: In the recent literature, increasing attention has been paid to cases when the shocks to a small number of firms would lead to large volatility in many sectors. Theorists find that supply chains play a role, as the shocks to a firm or a sector may propagate through the input–output linkages and form risks in the whole network. In this paper, we investigate the impact of risks from supply-chain variations on risk premia of the A-listed firms in the Chinese stock market from 2007 to 2021. Based on network statistics, we measure a firm's local status in the supply chains by the customer- and supplier-concentration, and its global position by the centrality. We then construct corresponding risk factors using diversified portfolios sorted according to these indices. It is found that the supply-chain positions are related to risk exposure. Firms with de-concentrated customers/suppliers have larger risk premia than concentrated firms. Moreover, with Size controlled, the firms in the center of cross-sector trade have higher risk premia than the peripheral ones. When these supply-chain factors are added to Fama and French's five-factor model with Market, Size, B/M ratio, Operating profitability, and Investment, the proportion of return variances that could be explained would increase from 51.1% to 54.9% on average.

中国股市的供应链与风险溢价：资产组合方法

摘要：在最近的文献中，人们越来越关注少数企业受到的冲击会导致许多部门大幅波动的情况。金融学理论研究发现，供应链在其中发挥了作用，因为对一家公司或一个部门的冲击可能会通过投入产出关系传播，并在整个网络中形成风险。本文研究了2007至2021年供应链变动风险对中国股市中A股上市公司风险溢价的影响。基于网络统计学，我们用客户集中度和供应商集中度来衡量企业在供应链中的局部地位，用其在整个投入产出网络中的中心度来衡量企业在供应链中的全局地位。然后，我们根据这些指标将股票排序并构造投资组合以构建相应的风险因子。研究发现，供应链地位与风险暴露程度有关。与集中型企业相比，客户/供应商非集中型企业的风险溢价更大。此外，在控制规模的情况下，处于跨行业贸易中心的企业比外围企业具有更高的风险溢价。如果将这些供应链因子加入Fama-French的五因子模型，即市场、规模、账面市值比、营业利润率和投资，则可解释的收益率差异比例平均将从 51.1%升至 54.9%。

The role of socio-political factors in public debt accumulation: Evidence from CEMAC countries

Abstract：The analysis of public debt determinants is well documented in the literature. However, previous studies give more focus to the economic determinants neglecting the role played by socio-political factors. The purpose of this study is to fill that gap observed in the literature by investigating the impact of socio-political factors on CEMAC countries' public debt accumulation in a bivariate relationship. The paper employs the OLS and GLS as baseline models using panel data covering the period from 1980 to 2021. The study uses as alternative techniques the FE, FE-IV, and the GMM for robustness checks. The empirical findings highlight the system (both presidential and legislative), corruption, Electoral openness and Competitiveness for legislative election (Liec), and fraud as the main driving factors of public debt in CEMAC countries. This paper suggests further studies to give a particular interest to socio-political factors while investigating the determinants of public debt in developing countries.

社会政治因素在公共债务积累中的作用：

来自中部非洲经济和货币共同体国家的证据

摘要：对公共债务决定因素的分析在文献中已有大量研究。然而，现有文献更多地关注经济因素却忽视了社会政治因素的作用。本文的研究目的是调查社会政治因素对中部非洲经济和货币共同体（CEMAC）国家公共债务积累的影响，填补文献中的这一空白。本文利用1980至2021年的面板数据，采用OLS和GLS作为基准模型，并用FE、FE-IV和GMM等方法进行稳健性检验。实证研究结果表明，国家体制（总统制和立法制）、腐败、立法选举的开放性和竞争性（Liec）以及欺诈是CEMAC国家公共债务的主要驱动因素。本文的实证结果说明在研究发展中国家公共债务的决定因素时，应特别关注社会政治因素。

The impact of e-commerce city pilot on the spatial agglomeration of high-end service industry in China

Abstract：We employ the data of 290 cities in China from 2006 to 2019 as a research sample and use the Multi-period DID method to test the policy shock of National E-commerce Demonstration Cities (NEDC) pilots on high-end service industry agglomeration. We find that after becoming pilot cities, the specialized agglomeration level of its high-end service industry increases by about 14.1% on average, and the diversified agglomeration level decreases by about 2.7% on average. And NEDC policy can affect the spatial agglomeration of high-end service industry through three channels: Enhancing the inclusiveness of digital finance, improving the degree of market competition, and promoting regional innovation ability. Moreover, NEDC policy has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. NEDC policy has a significant spillover effect on the specialized agglomeration of high-end service industry in the first-tier cities, while the second-tier cities show the characteristics of diversification dispersion. In addition, NEDC policy has a more obvious impact on the agglomeration effect of high-end service industry under the radiation and driving effect of megalopolis.

电子商务城市试点对中国高端服务业空间集聚的影响

摘要：我们以2006-2019年中国290个城市的数据为研究样本，采用多期双重差分法（DID方法）检验国家电子商务示范城市（NEDC）试点对高端服务业集聚的政策冲击。我们发现，成为试点城市后，其高端服务业的专业化集聚水平平均提高了约14.1%，多元化集聚水平平均降低了约2.7%。而NEDC政策可以通过三个渠道影响高端服务业的空间集聚：增强数字金融的包容性、提高市场竞争程度、提升区域创新能力。此外，NEDC政策还具有空间异质性特征。NEDC政策对一线城市高端服务业的专业化集聚具有显著的溢出效应，而二线城市则呈现出多元化分散的特征。此外，在特大城市的辐射和带动作用下，NEDC 政策对高端服务业集聚效应的影响更为明显。

Local officials' political capital and poverty alleviation

Abstract：This study examined the effect of local officials' political capital on poverty alleviation by using a manually compiled database of county party secretaries (CPSs) in impoverished counties in China. The empirical results reveal that CPSs with political capital positively affect poverty alleviation. Mechanism tests indicated that CPSs with political capital contribute to greater agricultural and financial development, attract more enterprise investment, and increase fiscal expenditure. The promotional effect of local officials' political capital on poverty alleviation was influenced by CPSs' characteristics (e.g., tenure, education level, and age) and was less pronounced during central government inspection and when the provincial government was less concerned about local officials' poverty alleviation. Our results suggest that local officials' political capital can alleviate poverty in emerging economies.

地方官员的政治资本与减贫成效

摘要：本文利用手工编制的中国贫困县县委书记（CPSs）数据库，考察了地方官员的政治资本对扶贫的影响。实证结果显示，拥有政治资本的县委书记会对扶贫工作产生积极影响。机制检验表明，具有政治资本的县委书记有助于促进本地农业和金融发展，以及吸引企业投资和增加财政支出水平。地方官员的政治资本对扶贫的促进作用受到县委书记某些特征（如任期、教育水平和年龄）的影响，且在中央政府视察期间和省级政府对地方官员的扶贫工作不太关注时，官员政治资本的促进作用将所有减弱。我们的研究结果表明，地方官员的政治资本可以减轻新兴经济体的贫困程度。

It pays to have guanxi:

How social capital affects household income in China

Abstract：The association between social capital and household income has received inadequate attention over the past decade. We examine the role of social capital in household income using three waves of household surveys from 2011 to 2015 in China. Using “local big surname or not” as the instrumental variable, we find that gift expenditure as a proxy for social capital is positively associated with total household income. In addition, social capital mainly affects income sources through improved financial sophistication, higher job position levels, closer government connections, and greater accessibility to operating loans. The results are robust to alternative social capital measures. The findings highlight the importance of social capital in household economic welfare in China.

有关系就有回报：社会资本如何影响中国家庭收入

摘要：在过去十年中，社会资本与家庭收入之间的关系没有得到足够的关注。我们利用中国 2011 至 2015 年的三波家庭调查研究了社会资本在家庭收入中的作用。以是否本地大姓作为工具变量，我们发现作为社会资本替代物的礼品支出与家庭总收入呈正相关。此外，社会资本主要通过改善金融复杂性、提高工作职位水平、密切政府关系和更容易获得经营贷款来影响收入来源。这些结果对其他社会资本衡量标准具有稳健性。研究结果凸显了社会资本在中国家庭经济福利中的重要性。