编按：本期内容主要包含“一带一路”与女性发展、性别多样化与专利质量、内生增长模型中的货币经济与预算赤字、中国部门价格变动的动态效应研究、机构间交叉合作与研究产出的幂律，及边境开放开发政策对中国边疆地区经济的影响。
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International Studies of Economics (ISE)
中国部门价格变动的动态效应研究
机构间交叉合作与研究产出的幂律：来自金融学三大顶级期刊的证据与理论
摘要
“One Belt One Road” and women development
Abstract: Women have become “the source of prosperity and vitality” through their active participation in national economic development. This paper provides the first study to explore the impact of the “One Belt One Road” initiative (Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]) on women's development, which is mainly indicated by gender inequality index (GII). We adopt the difference-in-difference method for Asia–Europe regions from 2010 to 2019, and the propensity score matching method is further supplemented for refining the control group. The result suggests a robust negative effect of the BRI on gender inequality, and the decrease in GII caused by the BRI accounts for 33.01%. In addition, a deeper analysis is performed on subindices from multiple dimensions. We find that there has been a significant decrease in maternal mortality due to the policy. Besides, the female population has a larger increase in secondary education compared with men. Moreover, a clear labour shift has been found from family and agricultural labour to high-value-added industries and services. The BRI also helps improve the unfavourable condition in backward countries, which is conducive to narrowing the gap in women's development among countries along the route.
摘要：通过积极参与国家经济发展，女性已经成为“繁荣与活力之源”。本文首次探讨了“一带一路”倡议（BRI）对女性发展的影响，这一影响主要用性别不平等指数（GII）来衡量。我们采用双重差分法对2010至2019年的亚欧地区进行了研究，并进一步利用倾向得分匹配法来完善对照组。研究结果表明，BRI对性别不平等有稳健的负面效应，BRI导致了GII下降的33.01%。我们对多个维度的子指数进行了深入分析。我们发现，由于政策的影响，孕产妇死亡率显著下降。另外，与男性相比，更多女性人口获得了中等教育。此外，我们还发现了家庭和农业劳动力向高附加值产业和服务业的明显转变。“一带一路”倡议还有助于改善落后国家的不利状况，有助于缩小沿线国家女性发展差距。
性别多样化与专利质量：基于中国专利数据的实证分析
Abstract: By an endogenous growth model with two-period overlapping generations structure and money holding of consumers, we examine the existence of budget deficit in an economy which endogenously grows by investments of firms. The main results are as follows. (1) Budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. (2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. (3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. We do not assume that budget deficit must later be made up by budget surplus. This paper is an example of an analysis using a very simple model of the following statement by John Maynard Keynes.
“Unemployment develops, that is to say, because people want the moon;—men cannot be employed when the object of desire (i.e. money) is something which cannot be produced and the demand for which cannot be readily choked off. There is no remedy but to persuade the public that green cheese is practically the same thing and to have a green cheese factory (i.e. a central bank) under public control.”
In the appendix of this paper, we show that if money as well as goods are produced by capital and labor, budget deficit is not necessary for full employment under constant prices.
摘要：本文利用一个具有两期重叠代际结构和消费者货币持有的内生增长模型研究了在一个由企业投资而内生增长的经济体中是否存在预算赤字。主要结果如下：（1）在恒定价格下，预算赤字是充分就业的必要条件。
（2）如果实际预算赤字大于恒定价格下实现充分就业所需的值，就会引发通货膨胀。
（3）如果实际预算赤字小于恒定价格下实现充分就业所需且足够的值，就会发生经济衰退。因此，在恒定价格下，平衡预算不能实现充分就业。上述结论并不依赖于预算赤字以后必须通过预算盈余进行弥补的假设。本文是基于约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的以下论述建立一个简单模型并分析的一个例子。
“失业的产生，也就是说，是因为人们想要月亮；—当欲望的对象（即金钱）是是无法生产的东西，而对它的需求又无法轻易扼杀时，人们就无法就业。（在此情况下），除了说服公众绿色奶酪实际上和金钱是同样的东西，并建立一个由公众控制的绿色奶酪工厂（即中央银行）之外，没有其他补救的办法。”此外，在本文的附录中，我们证明，如果货币和商品都是由资本和劳动生产的，那么在恒定价格下预算赤字并不是实现充分就业的必要条件。
Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic interactions of the cross-section distribution of sectoral price changes and the output growth in the Chinese economy. We compare in depth the results of Granger causality tests, Impulse Response, and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions from Mixed Sampling Frequency Vector Autoregression (MFVAR) with those from common frequency vector autoregression (VAR). It shows that potential causalities for inflation, relative price variability, relative price skewness, and output growth can be successfully detected by the MFVAR. The cross-section distribution of sectoral price changes stands to be a fundamental determinant of fluctuations in the aggregate economy, not only in the short run but also in the long run. Moreover, the empirical results are robust to the identification restrictions imposed as well as to alternative measures for model variables. Our findings are in line with the predictions of a standard sticky-price model, and thus pricing frictions are important factors behind the short-run nonneutrality of nominal shocks. We highlight the primacy of the information contained in the higher-order moments of cross-section distribution of sectoral price changes. We propose that policy authorities should make proper use of all of the valuable information available, particularly those embodied in the distribution of sectoral prices.
中国部门价格变动的动态效应研究
摘要：本文探究了中国部门价格变动的横截面分布特征与产出增长之间的动态关联。基于格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解的结果，本文详细地比较了在混频采样向量自回归（MFVAR）模型与传统的向量自回归（VAR）模型下，实证结论之异同。研究结果表明，MFVAR模型能够较为成功地检测出通货膨胀、相对价格变异性、相对价格偏斜度和产出增长之间的潜在因果关系。无论在短期内还是在长期内，部门相对价格的变动都是引发中国总体经济波动不容忽视的决定因素。此外，就模型识别限制条件和核心变量测度而言，本文的实证结果均具有高度稳健性。本文的研究结果和黏性价格模型（鲍尔和曼昆，1995）的理论预测相吻合，这意味着定价摩擦是导致名义冲击短期非中性的重要原因。我们认为，部门价格变动的高阶矩及其横截面分布特征包含了十分丰富的信息。因此货币当局在制定实施货币政策时，需充分、合理地利用所有可获得的信息，特别是蕴涵在部门价格分布中的那些有益信息。
Abstract:Cross-affiliation emerges as a new and fast-developing means to promote collaboration in financial research. We find that the average number of affiliations reported per author in the top-three finance journals increases steadily from 1.1 to 1.3 from 1995 to 2016. Scale-free power laws characterize the resulting highly-skewed distributions of top finance journal publications of worldwide institutions. We propose an explanation of the scale-invariance, based on a network model featuring nonlinear growth and linear preferential attachment. The model indicates that success-breeds-success engenders 87% of total publications and hence the dispersion in research output, while accelerated growth of collaboration reduces the heterogeneity.
机构间交叉合作与研究产出的幂律：来自金融学三大顶级期刊的证据与理论
摘要：跨机构合作兴起并成为推动金融研究合作的一种崭新且快速发展的手段。我们发现，从1995年到2016年，三大顶级金融期刊中每位作者报告的平均依托机构数量稳步增加，从1.1上升至1.3。无尺度幂律表征了世界各地机构在顶级金融期刊上发表的论文数量的分布的高偏度特征。我们基于非线性增长和线性优先链接的网络模型，提出了关于尺度不变性的解释。该模型表明，“成功造就成功”产生了总发表量的87%，从而引发了不同机构研究产出的差距，而合作的加速增长则缩少了这一差异。
Abstract: Theopenness and security of a country's borders is a matter of concern for countries worldwide. Since its reform and opening up in 1978, China has implemented reforming and opening policies in border regions, as represented by the “Xingbian Fumin Xingdong” (Revitalize Border Areas and Enrich Residents' Lives Policy [RBAERL Policy]) to achieve economic prosperity and stability. This study evaluated the impacts of the RBAERL policy in terms of outcomes related to county-level economic growth in China's border regions. Using China's county-level panel data from 1999 to 2016, we applied a spatial discontinuity design with the geographical boundary serving as the running variable. We found that the RBAERL policy contributed significantly to the economic growth of the border counties. These results were shown to be robust when measured against a series of test procedures. Through a by-segment analysis of the border regions, we found that the policy had the strongest effect in northeastern China. Further mechanism analysis showed that the effect of per capita GDP growth primarily resulted from the expansion of the industrial sector along with physical and human capital investment rather than the promotion of employment and the growth of total factor productivity. The findings of this study can provide references for the importance of open borders for economic development and national security.
摘要：一个国家边境的开放和安全是全球各国普遍关注的问题。自1978年改革开放以来，中国在边疆地区实施了以“兴边富民行动”为代表的开放开发政策，旨在实现边疆地区经济繁荣和稳定发展。本研究利用1999-2016年中国边疆地区县域面板数据，依据空间地理分界构建边境县和非边境县的准自然实验，运用空间断点回归方法评估了“兴边富民行动”政策对中国边疆县域经济增长的影响。研究发现“兴边富民行动”显著促进了边疆县域的经济增长。这些结果在经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。通过对边疆地区进行异质性分析，我们发现该政策在中国东北地区的影响效果最为显著。进一步的作用机制分析表明，边疆边境县经济增长的政策效果主要源于工业部门的扩张以及物质和人力资本的提升，而非就业推动和全要素生产率的提升。本研究结果为理解边疆开放开发对于促进经济发展和确保国家边疆安全的重要性提供了参考依据。
