International Studies of Economics
(ISE)
Issue 1, 2022
Kevin X. D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Lin ZhaoAbstract: China's economy underwent a steady recovery in 2021. Investment grew steadily with structural improvement. Exports and imports surged while trade surplus expanded. On the other hand, although labor market conditions improved, income distribution worsened, contributing to sluggish growth in consumption, whereas the gap between consumer price index and producer price index widened, and the profits of enterprises of different sizes diverged, which may go beyond how they are correlated with the locations of the enterprises in the chain of production and trade. While proper liquidity was maintained with prudent monetary policy, risk spillover rose in the financial system, particularly for small and medium-sized banks. Household and local government debts remained at relatively high levels, further dragging down growth in consumption and infrastructure investment. The “dual carbon” goals exerted downward pressure on near-term growth in trading off their long-term benefits. The economy also faced challenges in its external environment in the midst of the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic aboard, trade protectionism, and the readjustment of the global value chain. Moreover, excessive supervision and inadequate implementation disturbed China's economy, resulting in declined market vitality and confidence of market participants. Based on the Institute for Advanced Research-China Macroeconomic Model, the baseline real gross domestic product growth rate is projected to be 5.5% in 2022. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to the benchmark forecast, to reflect the influences of various risks and possible favorable situations. The findings suggest that China should deepen reform and open up more comprehensively and initiatively, while special effort should be placed on providing accommodative policy and friendly public opinion environment, to facilitate steady growth and propel high-quality development. A comprehensive macroeconomic governance framework with Chinese characteristics must be developed from systems thinking, to resolve the various issues, internal and external, cyclical and secular, structural and institutional, in an all-inclusive and coherent manner.以更大力度的改革开放落实稳中求进和推动高质量发展：展望、政策模拟与改革落实——《上海财经大学中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告2021-2022》概要摘要: 2021年，我国经济总体保持恢复态势。投资增速整体平稳，结构进一步优化。得益于我国有效的疫情防控，进出口增速大幅上升，贸易顺差持续扩大。虽然劳动力市场持续回暖，收入平均水平上升，但收入差距扩大，消费增长乏力，企业生产成本持续上升，CPI和PPI剪刀差进一步扩大，企业利润出现分化。审慎的货币政策使得流动性保持在合理区间。但金融稳定性未见改善，中小银行风险溢出水平大增。家庭和地方政府债务保持在高位运行，拖累消费和基建投资增速。“双碳”目标在权衡长期利益的同时，加大经济短期下行压力。随着多国采取与病毒共存的策略，未来我国外部经济的不确定性增加，全球产业链和供应链可能重新调整。需要关注的是，政策和多行业规范调整没有把握好时度效，监管、整顿过度和政策实施不到位共存，导致市场主体活力及其预期下降，企业信心不稳。基于上海财经大学高等研究院中国宏观经济预测模型（IAR-CMM），课题组预测2022年全年实际GDP增速约为5.5%。课题组充分重视对各种风险的防范，给出了不同情景下的经济走势、短期政策应对和中长期治理选项。课题组认为，中国应更加全面主动地深化改革开放，特别是要着力提供宽松的政策和良好的舆论环境，促进经济稳定增长，推动高质量发展。政府应该从系统思维出发，构建具有中国特色的综合宏观经济治理框架，全面、协调地解决各种问题，包括内部和外部问题、周期性和长期性问题、结构性和体制性问题。Christopher Colburn, Haiwen ZhouAbstract: The process of industrialization was accompanied by the switch from household production to firm production. The industrialization process was also a process of population growth, the appearance of general-purpose technologies, and the expansion of international trade. This paper studies the partition of production between households and firms in an analytically tractable general equilibrium model with a continuum of goods. We show that population growth, development of general-purpose technologies, and the opening of international trade increase the percentage of goods produced by firms. However, with the appearance of a technology biased toward home production, the percentage of goods produced by households can increase.摘要: 工业化进程是伴随着从家庭生产到公司生产的转换而发生的，同时也是人口增长、通用技术出现、国际贸易扩张的过程。本文用一个包含了连续商品的易于分析的一般均衡模型来研究家庭生产和公司生产的划分。我们证明人口增长、通用技术的发展国际贸易的出现提升了公司生产商品所占的百分比。不过，如果出现的生产技术提升家庭劳动生产率更多，家庭生产的货物占比也可以提高。Abstract: Hybrid entrepreneurship research is to probe into the increasingly widespread phenomenon of “employment + entrepreneurship” in real life, and to break the traditional practice of dichotomizing self-employment and employment. Hybrid entrepreneurship provides entrepreneurs with another employment alternative by combining entrepreneurship and employment. By analyzing data collected mainly from prospective entrepreneurs in China, this paper aims to explore the main influencing factors of hybrid entrepreneurial intentions, in particular how gender moderates the relationship between entrepreneurial motives and hybrid entrepreneurial intentions. Empirical findings reveal that gender differences are evident in prospective entrepreneurs who are motivated to be self-employed by necessity-driven factors and those who aim to test the waters of entrepreneurship via the hybrid path.
摘要: 混合创业研究探究实际生活里日益普遍的“就业+创业”现象，其打破了自主创业和就业的传统二分做法。混合创业为企业家提供了另一种创业与就业兼顾的就业选择。本文主要通过分析收集的来自中国大陆的未来企业家数据，旨在探究混合创业意图的主要影响因素，特别是性别因素如何协调创业动机和混合创业意图的关系。实证结果表明，性别差异在那些必需而自主创业或志在通过混合路径试水创业的未来企业家身上非常明显。Mohammad Altaf-Ul Alam, Xiaobo HeAbstract: The paper analyzes earnings differences between rural–urban migrants and urban workers in China to examine the proposition that discrimination against migrant workers is tending toward zero. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition is applied using the 2013 China Household Income Project (CHIP) database to find out the extent of discrimination against migrant workers. The results show the existence of wage difference between the two groups, however, most of the wage difference can be explained by observable characteristics implying that discrimination is on the wane. Assuming the urban worker's wage as a nondiscriminatory wage, the benchmark model shows that 82.9% of the wage difference can be explained by individual endowments. Furthermore, including occupation and industry variables the extended model can explain 91.8% leaving only 8.2% as the source of wage discrimination. Using the combined and Cotton (1988) method, the explanatory part is still very high (89.2% and 86.3%) although a bit lower than the previous method. To further support the proposition, we also do the same exercise using 2007 CHIP data that shows a higher percentage of discrimination (36.2%), implying that discrimination decreased in 2013 compared to 2007. A cautious review of similar literature also supports the view. In short, wage discrimination against migrant workers is tending toward zero in recent urban China.摘要: 本文分析进城农民工与城市工人收入差距来考察针对流动工人的歧视是否正向零趋近这一命题。我们基于2013年《中国家庭收入计划》（CHIP）统计数据，使用Blinder-Oaxaca分解方法来确定对流动工作的歧视程度。结果显示两组工人之间存在工资差距，但大部分工资差距是由显著特征引发，说明歧视在减少。假设城市工人的工资是不含歧视的工资，基准模型显示，82.9%的工资差距由个体禀赋造成。此外，若将职业和产业两个变量纳入，拓展模型可以解释91.8%的工资差距，仅有8.2%的工资差距源自工资歧视。分别使用联合法和Cotton (1988)的方法，可以解释的工资差距占比依然很高（分别为89.2% 、86.3%），尽管比前述方法略低。为进一步支持该命题，我们还使用2007年的CHIP统计数据做了同样的检验，得到的歧视程度更高（达36.2%），表明相比2007年，2013年的歧视程度有所降低。我们审慎回顾了类似文献，相关结论也支持本文观点。简言之，近些年中国城市对于流动工人的工资歧视正向零趋近。Congjia Huo, Lingming ChenAbstract: Family is the basic unit that constitutes social relations, and marriage-matching determines the development trajectory of a household. Education has become one of the most important ingredients of marriage in modern society, and the proportion of homogamy is increasing day by day. This article employs the data from the Chinese General Social Survey to research the mechanism of educational attainment on the educational homogamy. To eliminate the effect of endogeneity, we use the Probit model and instrumental variables for testing. The empirical results indicate that social members with higher educational backgrounds are more likely to choose educational homogamy. After controlling for other variables, social members and female members with lower ages are more likely to choose spouses with similar educational backgrounds.个人学历会影响教育同质性婚姻吗？——来自中国综合社会调查的证据摘要: 家庭是构成社会关系的基础单位，而婚姻匹配决定了一个家庭的发展轨迹。教育已经成为现代社会婚配的最重要因素之一，教育同质性婚姻比例日趋增加。本文使用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据，探讨受教育程度对教育同质性婚姻的作用机理；为了消除内生性的影响，本文采用Probit模型，并加入工具变量进行检验。最后实证结果表明：学历越高的社会成员越有可能选择教育同质性婚姻，在控制其他变量之后，年龄越低的社会成员和女性成员更倾向于选择学历相近的配偶。
Xiaoheng Zhang, Bingyu Huangfu, Shi Min
Abstract
The chemical fertilizer industry has made great contributions to China's food security. Existing studies mainly focus on evaluating fertilizer use efficiency at the farm level whereas little is known about the technical efficiency of Chinese firms producing fertilizer. Based on the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database (CIED) and the Generalized True Random Effects model (GTRE), this paper estimates and decomposes the technical efficiency of Chinese fertilizer-producing firms. Results show technical efficiency increased from 0.883 in 1998 to 0.930 in 2007, with an average of 0.898. The growth rate of persistent efficiency is lower than that of transient efficiency, implying structural problems exist in the Chinese fertilizer industry. Moreover, ownership type and firms' entry and exit are exogenous determinants of technical inefficiency. State-owned firms perform much worse on technical efficiency. The entry of efficient firms and exit of inefficient firms, especially the exit of inefficient state-owned firms, have improved the technical efficiency significantly.
中国化肥企业的长期和短期效率：所有制有影响吗？
摘要：化肥产业对中国的粮食安全做出了重大贡献。现有研究主要关注衡量农户层面的化肥利用效率，但对于中国化肥生产企业的技术效率研究较少。本文基于中国工业企业数据库（CIED）和广义随机效应模型（GTRE），估测并分解了中国化肥生产企业的技术效率。结果显示，这些企业的技术效率从1998年的0.883提高到2007年的0.930，平均值为0.898。长期效率的增长率要低于短期效率的增长率，说明中国化肥产业存在结构性问题。此外，本文认为所有制类型和企业进入和退出都是化肥产业技术效率低下的外生因素。其中，国有企业的技术效率更为低下。高效企业进入市场和低效企业退出市场，尤其是低效的国有企业退出市场，极大改善了化肥产业的技术效率。
