ISE 2022年第4期上线了！本期为ISE特邀编辑、加拿大菲莎河谷大学经济系教授陆丁老师主持编审的“一带一路”经济学专辑。为便利“一带一路”相关经济学研究，本刊一年前发起专辑征稿，本期收录稿件从最初的几十份投稿中经快审流程遴选而来，包括广东财经大学教授陈甬军、中国人民大学博士郭成龙的合作稿件《共建“一带一路”倡议成功的充分和必要条件》等共6篇，涵盖“一带一路”倡议相关重大经济问题探讨，以期深化我们对于该倡议目的、机制和影响的认识。
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目录
International Studies of Economics (ISE)
Special Issue on the Economics of the Belt and Road Initiative
Ding Lu
“一带一路”经济学专辑简介
共建“一带一路”倡议成功的充分和必要条件
Xin Chen, Heyang Fang, Yun Liu, Yifei Zhang
“一带一路”国家会获得更多来自中国政策性银行的海外贷款吗?
Haoyuan Ding, Yi Li, Liang Wang, Chang Xue
“一带一路”倡议、党组织参与公司治理与中国企业对外直接投资
Beibei Hu, Yuying Jin, Kai Wang
自由贸易协定对“一带一路”沿线基础设施项目成功率的影响
Fangying Pang, Jingjing Tang, Hanwen Xie
“民心相通”是否能促进城市经济发展：来自中国-东盟友好城市的证据
Yu Chen, Yan Zhang, Lin Zhao
“一带一路”的出口创造效应：“授人以鱼”还是“授人以渔”？
摘要
This paper presents a general theoretical framework for understanding the Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI). We begin with an introduction to the connotations of the BRI and a review of the initiative's main achievements since its inception. From these achievements, we identify the existence of a potential match between supply and demand in jointly building the BRI to be the foremost necessary condition for win–win cooperation for participating countries. Several features of China's contemporary economic structure are shown to provide the huge potential of supply that matches the massive demand of many Belt-and-Road countries for infrastructure development. To unleash the full potential of the BRI, a series of sufficient conditions must be met so that supply and demand interact in a virtuous manner. In the first stage of jointly building the BRI, the key to turn the initiative's potential into reality is to develop the “Five Links” of policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bond. Now that the BRI has entered the high-quality development stage, we demonstrate that China has taken or needs to work on policy measures in 10 areas to ensure the continuing and sustainable success of the BRI construction.
摘要：本文为理解“一带一路”倡议提供了一个基本的理论框架。首先，简介了“一带一路”倡议的内涵，并回顾了该倡议自提出以来已经取得的主要成就。通过这些成就，我们发现供给和需求之间存在潜在匹配，这是参与共建“一带一路”的国家之间实现合作共赢最重要的必要条件。中国当前经济结构的若干特征提供了强大的供给潜力，匹配许多“一带一路”沿线国家对于基础设施发展的巨大需求。要充分释放“一带一路”倡议的潜力，还须满足一系列充分条件以便实现供需良性互动。在共建“一带一路”的最初阶段，把倡议的潜力转为现实的关键是加强“五通”，即：政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通、民心相通。现在，“一带一路”倡议已经进入高质量发展阶段，我们论证了中国已经或需要在10个方面采取政策措施，确保“一带一路”建设继续并可持续的成功。
This paper examines how Chinese policy banks responded to China's Belt Road Initiative (BRI) using transaction-level international syndicated loan data. Employing a difference-in-differences (DID) estimation, we show that Chinese policy banks increased aggregate lending (number of loans and loan amounts) to firms from the BRI countries compared to those from the non-BRI countries after the initiative. This increase was more pronounced among firms along the continental route and in the infrastructure sectors. We also find that Chinese policy banks' loans to the BRI borrowers were associated with reduced spread, lowered collateral requirement, and extended maturity. Moreover, our results suggest that Chinese policy banks gave more support to firms from the BRI countries with weaker economic performance, more fragile institutional quality, and closer political interests. Overall, our study highlights the supportive role played by Chinese policy banks in implementing a national globalization strategy.
“一带一路”国家会获得更多来自中国政策性银行的海外贷款吗?
摘要：本文使用交易级别的国际辛迪加贷款数据，研究了中国政策性银行如何响应中国的“一带一路”倡议。基于双重差分法的准自然实验分析，本文发现，在“一带一路”倡议实施后，中国政策性银行显著增加了向“一带一路”沿线国家的企业发放的总贷款(贷款数量和贷款金额)。实证结果表明，位于陆路沿线和基础设施部门的企业所获贷款增长更为明显。从交易层面来说，中国政策性银行向“一带一路”国家发放的企业贷款具有低利差、低担保要求和长偿还期等特点。此外，对经济发展水平较落后、制度质量较脆弱和政治利益更紧密的“一带一路”企业，中国政策性银行给予了更多的支持。总体而言，本文强调了中国政策性银行在实施国家全球化战略方面发挥的支持作用。
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an important strategy for China. This study examines the effect of political involvement on firms' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in belt-road countries after the BRI. Using merged Chinese nonfinancial listed firm data, the fDi Markets database, and the Thomson One database (formerly known as SDC Platinum) for the period 2008–2018, we find that political involvement has positive effect on firms' OFDI in belt-road countries after the BRI. Furthermore, we find that the positive effect is heterogeneous across state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs. Political involvement has a positive effect on M&A for SOEs and Greenfield investment for non-SOEs in belt-road countries after the BRI. Our findings suggest that political involvement promotes firms' OFDI in belt-road countries after the BRI and is helpful to the macro-policy implementation.
摘要：“一带一路”倡议是中国的一项重要战略。本研究考察了“一带一路”倡议后党组织参与公司治理对企业在“一带一路”倡议沿线国家对外直接投资的影响。利用2008-2018年合并的中国非金融类上市公司数据、fDi Markets数据库和Thomson One数据库（原名SDC Platinum），我们发现在“一带一路”倡议提出后党组织参与公司治理程度较高的企业在“一带一路”国家的对外直接投资会更多。此外，我们发现前述结论在不同企业所有制维度具有不同的表现。我们的研究结果表明，在“一带一路”倡议提出后，党组织参与公司治理促进了企业在“一带一路”国家的对外直接投资，并有助于宏观政策的实施。
After China launched the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, the Chinese government has invested over 1200 infrastructure projects in countries along the Belt and Road, and nearly 10% of the projects have failed or been delayed. China has also concluded free trade agreements with many countries along the Belt and Road to reduce trade and investment barriers to promote economic and trade cooperation. This paper analyzes whether the signing of the free trade agreement (FTA) is conducive to promoting China's infrastructure investment projects’ success in the countries along the Belt and Road. We conclude that the signing of the FTA agreement is conducive to reducing the failure rate of China's infrastructure investment in the countries along the Belt and Road. For deeper FTAs, the effect is more pronounced. This paper further explores the investment provision of FTA and concludes that investment provision can improve the success rate of investment, especially if it includes provision of national treatment in the pre-establishment and the dispute settlement mechanism.
摘要：自2013年正式启动“一带一路”倡议以来，中国政府已经对“一带一路”沿线国家投资了超过1200个基础设施项目，其中有大约10%的项目出现非预期终止或延迟。中国亦积极同“一带一路”沿线部分国家缔结自由贸易协定，削减贸易和投资壁垒以促进双边经贸合作。本文旨在研究中国缔结的自由贸易协定是否有助于提高基础设施项目实施的成功率。研究发现，自由贸易协定确实能够降低基础设施项目的失败率，对于自由化深度指数更高的协定表现的更显著。此外，如果在协定文本中包括准入前国民待遇和争端解决机制的投资条款，降低基础设施项目失败率的效果更为明显。
Whether maintaining a close relationship with China can benefit economic performance in the postpandemic era is a crucial concern for countries around the world. This study employs the difference-in-difference (DID) model and propensity score matching to estimate the impact of connecting people proposed by the Belt and Road Initiate (BRI) on the subnational economic development of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) cities. The quasi-natural experiment of DID is based on the establishment of China–ASEAN friendship cities. We capture the ASEAN subnational economic development by calibrated satellite nighttime light data. Our findings show that the establishment of a friendship-city relationship has a positive impact on the subnational economic development of China–ASEAN cities. Further analysis indicates that bilateral trade, China's direct investment in contracted projects, and mutual visits by national leaders may be the underlying channels for boosting the economic development of China–ASEAN friendship cities. This study contributes to the literature on friendship city and provides ex-ante implications on the BRI from the perspective of connecting people with first-hand empirical evidence.
“民心相通”是否能促进城市经济发展：来自中国-东盟友好城市的证据
摘要：与中国保持友好往来是否有利于其区域经济表现，始终是全球化背景下世界各国关心的问题。本研究采用双重差分（DID）模型和倾向得分匹配方法来评估一带一路倡议（BRI）提出的合作重点，即“民心相通”对东盟国家（ASEAN）城市层面经济发展的影响。这一准自然实验以东盟国家所有城市为样本基础，以中国-东盟缔结友好城市关系的城市为着重关注的对象。鉴于原始卫星夜间灯光数据（DMSP/OLS）缺乏连续性、可对比性，我们首先对原始卫星夜间灯光数据进行了一系列校准，并通过校准后的卫星夜间灯光数据捕捉东盟国家城市层面的经济发展。我们的研究结果表明，以结交友好城市关系为表征的“民心相通”这一互联互通政策对中国-东盟友好城市的经济发展具有正向作用。进一步分析表明，双边贸易、中国对外承包工程的对外经济合作以及国家领导人的互访是“民心相通”政策推动中国-东盟友好城市经济发展的潜在渠道。本文不仅丰富了关于友好城市方面的文献，而且从民心相通的角度提供来自夜间灯光数据的经验证据，为一带一路倡议中的合作重点内容提供先验证据和启示。
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiated by China in 2013 is a new experiment in regional cooperation, which aims to improve infrastructure connectivity through investment. This paper investigates whether the BRI created exports for its member states (excluding China), based on a difference-in-differences model. We find a significant causal relationship between the signing of the initiative and the export growth of its member states. In addition to the large export creation between the BRI countries and China (considered as “give-them-a-fish”), export creation also originated from the BRI countries excluding China (“teach-them-to-fish”). Both the intensive and extensive margins are significantly important, indicating that export creation has not just come from expansion of the volume of existing products, but also from new products and new markets. The BRI achieved the goal of mutual benefit mainly through enlisting investment in both publicly funded infrastructure sectors and private sectors. Moreover, the initiative has enhanced the position and participation of its member states in the global value chain.
“一带一路”的出口创造效应：“授人以鱼”还是“授人以渔”？
摘要：2013年中国提出全新区域合作协议“一带一路”。该倡议旨在通过提升基础建设投资以增强成员国之间的跨域沟通。本文基于DID模型，考察了“一带一路”对其成员国（除中国以外）的出口创造效应。实证结果表明，出口创造效应不局限于成员国与中国之间（“授人以鱼”），成员国之间亦存在巨大的贸易增长（“授人以渔”）。广度边际与深度边际分析表明，出口的创造效应不仅源于现有产品贸易量的增长，同样源于新产品市场的开拓。在机制分析中，我们发现“一带一路”的出口创造效应主要是通过公共基础建设及私人部门的投资增长实现。此外，“一带一路”倡议也提升了其成员国在全球价值链中的位置和参与度。
