ISE 2023年第1期上线了！本期汇集了上海财经大学中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告（2022-2023）概要、环境监管和企业对外直接投资、标准对中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易的异质性影响、通用语言对国际双边贸易的影响、中国差别电价政策对企业化石能源消耗的影响、网络游戏对未成年人的影响等论文。
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International Studies of Economics (ISE)
Issue 1, 2023
Kevin X. D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Xiaowen Wang
以经济建设为中心稳定经济社会大局，全力推动经济复苏：前景展望、政策模拟与改革落实----上海财经大学中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告（2022-2023）概要
Yong Tan, Qing Shi, Siyuan Xuan, Guang Yang
环境监管和企业对外直接投资：基于中国“十一五”规划的实证分析
Lijuan Yang, Weigong Du
催化剂还是壁垒？标准对中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易的异质性影响
Li Su, Hojin Jung, Mingzhuo Yang
通用语言在国际双边贸易中重要吗？
Lin Zhao
中国差别电价政策对企业化石能源消耗的影响
Moye Li, Mingxiong Zhu
为什么要严防未成年人沉迷网络游戏?
摘要
Kevin X. D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Xiaowen Wang
Abstract：The Chinese economy upheld a frail recovery in 2022 under the triple superposition of contraction of demand, disruption in supply, and weakening expectations, aggravated by unanticipated adverse shocks in the midst of global turmoil. Over the year, rising income uncertainty set off by the pandemic shock continued depressing household consumption and housing demand. Trade also saw slowing growth, along with consumption and investment, with sluggish residential investment awaiting policy stimulus to take force. Unemployment rate remained high, and was much higher for youth engendered by severe structural imbalances in the labor market. Local government debt burden worsened while revenue shrinking, only to exacerbate the local fiscal financial risk. It fared better on the price side. While growth in producer price index kept falling, consumer price index maintained steady growth. Renminbi depreciated against USD through fluctuations with larger swings, but the exchange rate remained in a manageable band. The Institute for Advanced Research-China Macroeconomic Model projects the baseline growth rate in real gross domestic product to be 5.4% in 2023. We have also used the model to conduct alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations to assess the impacts of potential downside risks or favorable situations. Our findings call for a focus on economic construction with deepening reform and opening up more comprehensively and initiatively. Only by doing so can China spur market vitality, strengthen business confidence, and forge competitive advantages.
以经济建设为中心稳定经济社会大局，全力推动经济复苏：
前景展望、政策模拟与改革落实----
上海财经大学中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告（2022-2023）概要
摘要：2022年，中国经济在需求收缩、供给冲击和预期转弱的三重压力下呈现微弱复苏，同时在全球动荡的意外负面冲击中困顿前行。综观全年，疫情冲击引起的收入不确定性上升持续抑制家庭消费和住房需求。贸易、消费和投资缓慢增长，持续放缓的住房投资有待政策刺激起效。失业率居高不下，劳动力市场上严重的结构失衡导致青年人失业率更高。地方政府债务负担加重而财政收入减少，使得地方财政金融风险加剧。价格方面表现良好。生产者价格指数涨幅持续回落，消费者价格指数增速稳定。人民币兑美元双向宽幅波动增强，总体贬值但汇率维持在可控范围内。课题组利用上海财经大学高等研究院中国宏观经济预测模型（IAR-CMM）预测2023年中国全年实际GDP基准增速为5.4%。我们还用此模型进行了多种情景分析和政策模拟，以评估潜在下行压力或有利形势的影响。相关结果表明，要以经济建设为中心，深化制度性改革，扩大制度型开放，以激发市场主体活力，增强市场信心，打造竞争优势。
Environmental regulations and firm-level FDI: Evidence from China's 11th 5-year plan
Yong Tan, Qing Shi, Siyuan Xuan, Guang Yang
Abstract：This paper investigates the influence of environmental regulations on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). We first develop a simple model to show that an increase in emission tax in the domestic market induces firm-level foreign direct investment (FDI) activities. We next take advantage of China's 11th Five-Year Plan as a quasi-natural experiment, which imposed different pollution reduction targets across provinces, and examine its impact on firm-level FDI activities. Our results indicate that more stringent environmental regulations encourage firm-level FDI participation. Furthermore, (1) firms are more likely to carry out FDI in developing countries instead of developed ones; (2) Compared with distribution-oriented FDI, firms are more likely to engage in production-oriented FDI. All results remain robust after controlling for possible policy endogeneity, missing variables, and expectation effect issues, which provides positive support for the pollution haven hypothesis.
环境监管和企业对外直接投资：基于中国“十一五”规划的实证分析
摘要：本文考察了环境监管对对外直接投资的影响。我们建立了一个简单模型来说明国内市场上排放税的增长会诱发企业对外直接投资活动。利用中国的“十一五”规划（期间针对不同省份推出不同的污染减排目标）作为准自然实验，考察其对企业对外直接投资活动的影响。结果显示，更为严格的环境监管将促使企业更多参与对外直接投资。此外：（1）企业更可能选择发展中国家而非发达国家进行对外直接投资；（2）相对于分配相关的对外直接投资，企业更可能参与生产相关的对外直接投资。在控制了可能的政策内生性、遗漏变量、期望效应等因素后，所有结果依然稳健，为“污染天堂假说”提供了积极依据。
Lijuan Yang, Weigong Du
Abstract：There is an ongoing debate about whether standards act as trade catalysts or barriers. This article uses a gravity model to analyze the effects of national standards on the trade of agricultural products between China and the 64 Belt and Road (B&R) countries from 1990 to 2019. Mandatory country-specific standards have positive and significant effects on total trade, exports, and imports. Mandatory international harmonization standards have positive and significant effects on total trade and exports. Voluntary country-specific standards positively (and significantly) affect exports, while voluntary internationally harmonized standards positively (and significantly) affect total trade, exports, and imports. The magnitude of coefficients of mandatory country-specific standards is the highest, followed by mandatory internationally harmonized standards and voluntary internationally harmonized standards. It is beneficial for China and the B&R countries to strengthen standards cooperation, actively adopt international standards, and evaluate the implementation effect of standards over time.
催化剂还是壁垒？标准对中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易的异质性影响
摘要：关于标准是发挥贸易催化剂还是壁垒的作用，目前仍有争论。本文使用引力模型分析1990年至2019年标准对中国与64个“一带一路”国家农产品贸易的效应。强制性国家标准对贸易总额、出口和进口产生积极且显著的影响。强制性国际协调标准对贸易总额和出口产生积极且显著的影响。自愿性国家标准促进出口，而自愿性国际协调标准对贸易总额、出口和进口产生积极且显著的影响。强制性国家标准的影响力度最大，其次是强制性国际协调标准、自愿性国际协调标准。加强国际标准合作，积极采用国际标准并评估标准实施效果，有益于推动中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易发展。
Li Su, Hojin Jung, Mingzhuo Yang
Abstract: This article explores the impact of language proficiency on international trade by using panel data analysis. To do so, we construct a time-variant test-score-based measure of common language. Controlling for the standard gravity model variables, we find strong empirical evidence that English proficiency promotes bilateral trade flows through facilitating direct communication. We confirm that this finding is robust even when we estimate its effects separately on goods and services trade flows at a disaggregated level. Furthermore, we show that institutional similarities between trading partners play a role that is similar to communication easiness in trade. Our study provides a policy implication for government support for attaining second language fluency.
通用语言在国际双边贸易中重要吗？
摘要：本文使用双边贸易面板数据，探讨了精通外语对国际贸易的影响。我们构建了随时间变化的、基于英语考试成绩的，对共同语言的衡量方法。在控制了相关引力模型的变量后，我们的实证结果表明，精通英语能够提升双边贸易流量。我们进一步发现，在分类产品的层面上，分别衡量其对货物和服务贸易的影响，结果依然稳健。此外，我们还证明了贸易伙伴之间的体制相似性，和交流便捷一样，也对双边贸易起到一定作用。我们的研究为政府支持提升外语水平提供了一定的政策启示。
Lin Zhao
Abstract: China, the world's largest energy consumer, has been increasingly relying on pricing policies to improve energy efficiency in recent years. This paper estimates the impact of Differential Electricity Pricing (DEP) policy, which covers the most energy-intensive industries in China. Under the DEP policy, electricity surcharges are imposed on enterprises using “eliminated” and “restricted” production technologies, of which the “eliminated” enterprises are more backward in technology level and are charged much higher electricity tariffs. We exploit a differences-in-differences approach to assess the effect of the DEP policy on fossil fuel consumption. The results indicate that the DEP policy led to a reduction in coal consumption intensity (CCI) of “eliminated” enterprises, which can be explained by the obsoleting of backward equipment in these enterprises. As for the “restricted” enterprises, it was economically optimal to continue to use “restricted” equipment; consequently, the DEP policy had no significant impact on CCI.
中国差别电价政策对企业化石能源消耗的影响
摘要：中国作为世界上最大的能源消费国，近年来越来越多使用价格政策来提高能源效率。本文估计了中国差别电价政策（Differential Electricity Pricing policy, DEP policy）对企业化石能源消耗的影响。差别电价政策涵盖了中国能源消耗强度最高的行业，该政策对高耗能行业中属于“淘汰类”和“限制类”的企业征收高于正常工业电价的差别电价。其中，“淘汰类”企业使用的生产工艺比“限制类”更为落后，加价标准也高于“限制类”企业。双重差分回归结果显示，差别电价政策促使“淘汰类”企业加快了对落后生产设备的淘汰和报废，从而有利于减少燃料煤消耗。而在限制类企业，由于加价标准较低，继续使用原有设备是企业的最优选择，因此，该政策对“限制类”企业燃料煤消耗无显著影响。
Moye Li, Mingxiong Zhu
Abstract: The Chinese central government recently published a new regulation to strictly limit the time minors spend on online games, providing a favorable policy environment for the protection of their physical and mental health as well as their overall development. We first provide empirical evidence that children having more frequent online entertainment would suffer worse school performance. We then adopt analytic hierarchy process to analyze the possible hazards of minors' addiction to online games from such aspects as physical health, academic performance, family relationship, and teacher–student relationship. Recommendations are finally given on how to prevent minors from being addicted to online games.
为什么要严防未成年人沉迷网络游戏?
摘要：中央近期出台新规严格限制未成年人玩网络游戏的时间，为保护未成年人的身心健康与全面发展提供了有利的政策环境。本文分析了我国未成年人深度卷入高速发展的网络游戏产业的现状及危害，明确了防止未成年人沉迷网络游戏的必要性与艰巨性，并用有限标度视角下的层次分析理论从身体健康、学习成绩、家庭关系、师生关系等维度展开分析，就防止未成年人沉迷于网络游戏、保护其身心健康、实现德智体美劳的全面发展提出建议。
