【主题】“中国经济：理论与政策”系列讲座第22讲：新发展格局下的城乡和区域发展
【报告人】陆铭（上海交通大学）
【时间】2021年1月12日（星期二）15:00
【地点】高等研究院楼108室 Zoom会议号：94526645184 密码：123456
【主题】公共卫生、居民健康与医疗支出
【报告人】梁超（山东大学经济研究院助理研究员）
【时间】2020年12月11日（星期五）10:00-11:30
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】中文
【摘要】新冠疫情凸显出公共卫生在现代经济社会中的重要性，已有研究多关注公共卫生运动的长期影响，鲜有研究公共卫生对居民患病和医疗需求的影响，而这对投入“预防”还是“治疗”的卫生政策讨论有重要的借鉴和参考意义。基于省级宏观面板数据，我们发现农村卫生厕所使用率上升伴随着传染病发病率和农村家庭医疗支出占消费比例的显著下降。本文进一步利用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）微观数据，基于村居改厕的准自然实验构造双重差分模型估计使用卫生厕所的影响。研究发现，村居改厕带来居民患病率下降4.4%，医疗总需求下降6.4%，其中正规医疗需求（看门诊或医院）下降4.3%。改厕还带来医疗支出下降20.7%，人均年度节约医疗费用超过175元。成本收益分析显示推进厕所革命有着良好的成本收益比。异质性考察发现低阶层家庭、女性在村居改厕中获益更多。本研究从文献上为公共卫生的影响揭示了新的视角和机制，从政策上为公共卫生投入“预防”或“治疗”的争论提供了借鉴，也为农村“厕所革命”中相关补贴标准的制定提供了参考。
【主题】Managing Expectations in the New Keynesian Model
【报告人】Prof. Yang Lu (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
【时间】2020年12月8日（星期二）13:30-15:00
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/94083454809 密码：699289
【语言】英文
【摘要】We study the optimal monetary policy in a setting where the private sector is forward-looking and learning about the type of central bank in place. We consider two types of central bank, one patient type that can commit and one opportunistic type that is myopic and cannot commit. Being able to commit or not, the central bank in place chooses inflation policies optimally, taking into account the learning and rational expectation of the private sector. We show that the equilibrium can be obtained as a solution to a recursive optimization of the committed type in which the actions of the opportunistic type are subject to an incentive compatibility constraint. The numerical solution to a calibrated model reveals that the committed central bank with good initial reputation adopts policies similar to the standard solution under full commitment, whereas the committed central bank with poor initial reputation aims at building reputation with anti-inflation policies that involve real costs. If the opportunistic central bank with good initial reputation is in place, there will be lengthy real stimulations with gradually rising actual and expected inflation, followed by stagflation when the history of positive inflation surprises depletes the central bank's reputation.
【主题】Government Spending, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
【报告人】李戎（中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授）
【时间】2020年12月7日（星期一）13:30-15:00
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】We test the effects of government spending on private consumption using stock markets data. We illustrate the link between government spending and asset prices through the impacts of fiscal policies on private consumption. Our analysis reveals that an expansionary government spending shock carries different prices of risk for asset valuations when cooperating with different monetary policies. The empirical results find that a government spending shock carries a negative premium when the zero lower bound of monetary policy is binding, while show a puzzling hump-shape government spending risk premium during the normal time. In addition, standard risk factors, macro uncertainty, and other firm characteristics do not account for the differential pattern in returns across different combinations of fiscal and monetary policies. During the ZLB period, firms with high exposure to government spending shock significantly under-perform firms with low exposure, by about 10% per annum.
【主题】激励还是抑制：住房公积金对企业生产效率的影响
【报告人】唐珏（上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院新聘研究员）
【时间】2020年11月19日（星期四）12:00-13:30
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/96612225312 密码：412348
【语言】中文
【摘要】当前住房公积金年缴费额已接近GDP总额的2.4%，且呈现快速增长的趋势，但鲜有文献研究其对企业的影响。利用微观数据和手动收集的城市公积金缴费率数据，本文发现公积金会对企业生产效率造成负面影响，并发现了如下机制：企业支付现金缴纳公积金，造成现金流下降，进而对研发造成挤出；公积金扭曲劳动力价格，使企业生产规模下降，造成规模经济损失；公积金减少职工的可支配收入，对生产积极性造成负面影响。这一负面影响，在融资约束强、平均工资高、利润水平低和市场化程度低的组别中更加明显。
【主题】S-Shaped Consumption Utility: Empirical Evidence and Implications
【报告人】鞠高升副教授（复旦大学经济学院）
【时间】2020年11月11日（星期三）1:30-3:00 PM
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/99642229381 密码：666176
【语言】英文
【摘要】 We find that common macro factors generate a “big bang/crunch” effect on micro consumption. Generally speaking, when the aggregate effect of changes in common factors on consumption at low consumption-growth states is negative (resp. positive), the effect at high consumption-growth states is positive (resp. negative). The “big bang/crunch” suggests that consumption utility functions are not concave-shaped but S-shaped. That is, individuals exhibit diminishing sensitivity to both gains and losses. S-shaped consumption utility explains the poor empirical performance of traditional consumption-based asset pricing models. Furthermore, S-shaped utility accounts for the positive correlation between state-dependent intertemporal elasticity of substitution and consumption growth.
【主题】“中国经济：理论与政策”系列讲座第21讲：全媒体背景下的突发事件舆情感知与管理决策
【报告人】刘建国（上海财经大学会计学院）
【时间】2020年10月29日（星期四）2:00-3:30 PM
【地点】高等研究院楼232室
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/92977705057 密码：123456
【主题】上海财经大学2020年第三季度宏观经济数据分析研讨会暨国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“防范和化解金融风险”研讨会
【报告人】高等研究院“中国宏观经济形势分析与预测”项目组
【时间】2020年10月27日 13 : 30 — 17 : 10
【地点】高等研究院105会议室、Zoom视频会议ID: 99169302598 密码：123456
【主题】A Unified Measure of Fed Monetary Policy Shocks
【报告人】吴文斌助教授（复旦大学）
【时间】2020年10月20日（星期二）3:30-5:00 PM
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/95714099368 密码：229961
【语言】英文
【摘要】 We develop a U.S. monetary policy shock series that stably bridges periods of conventional and unconventional policymaking, is largely unpredictable, and contains no significant central bank information effect. We attribute differences between our measure and often-used alternatives to our econometric procedure, a partial least squares approach, and our using the full maturity spectrum of interest rates in estimating the shock. We find that shocks to our monetary policy series have particularly large effects on maturities in the middle of the term structure and produce conventionally-signed impulse responses of output and inflation.
【主题】Bayesian Nonparametric Forecast Pooling
【报告人】杨乔助教授（上海科技大学）
【时间】2020年10月15日（星期四）3:30-5:00 PM
【地点】高等研究院310
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/91848546998 密码：755284
【语言】英文
【摘要】 This paper introduces a new approach to forecast pooling methods based on a nonparametric prior for the weight vector combining predictive densities. The first approach places a Dirichlet process prior on the weight vector and generalizes the static linear pool. The second approach uses a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior to allow the weight vector to follow an infinite hidden Markov chain. This generalizes dynamic prediction pools to the nonparametric setting. We discuss efficient posterior simulation based on MCMC methods. Detailed applications to short-term interest rates, realized covariance matrices and asset pricing models show the nonparametric pool forecasts well.
【主题】Quantitative Easing
【报告人】崔巍助教授（伦敦大学学院）
【时间】2020年10月13日（星期二）4:00-5:30 PM
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/93858898051 密码：105087
【语言】英文
【摘要】 Is Quantitative Easing (QE) an effective substitute for conventional monetary policy? We study this question using a heterogeneous-agents model with liquid and partially liquid wealth, as well as nominal rigidities. The direct macroeconomic effect of QE is determined by the difference in marginal propensities to consume out of the two types of wealth, which is large according to empirical studies. QE therefore emerges as a powerful policy instrument to anchor expectations and stabilize output and inflation. Indeed, the estimated model reveals that QE interventions greatly dampened the U.S. Great Recession. However, we also find that QE may have strong side effects on inequality and welfare, suggesting that conventional policy should remain the primary stabilization instrument in the central bank's toolkit.
【主题】Optimal Policy with General Signal Extraction
【报告人】Albert Marcet教授（伦敦大学学院、巴塞罗那经济学研究生院、经济政策研究中心）
【时间】2020年9月8日（星期二）3:30-5:00 PM
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/69438791192 密码：983232
【语言】英文
【摘要】We study optimal policy when the planner has partial information and signals are endogenous to policy. In this case, signal extraction and policy have to be determined jointly. We derive a general non-standard first order condition of optimality from first principles and we use it to find numerical solutions. We derive existing results based on the “separation principle” as special cases, e.g., models with exogenous signals. We apply our results to multiple versions of a model of optimal fiscal policy and find that taxes are often a highly non-linear function of observed hours worked, calling for tax smoothing in normal times, but for a strong fiscal reaction to output in a deep recession. This non-linearity arises because signal extraction interacts differently with optimal policy depending on the range of observed signals.
【报告人简介】伦敦大学学院（UCL）、巴塞罗那经济学研究生院（Barcelona GSE）教授，经济政策研究中心（CEPR）研究员，世界计量经济学会（Econometric Society）会士。
【主题】Wealth Inequality, Aggregate Consumption, and Macroeconomic Trends Under Incomplete Markets
【报告人】Byoungchan Lee（香港科技大学助理教授）
【时间】2020年9月1日（星期二）3:30-5:00 PM
【参会链接】https://zoom.com.cn/j/64806205953 密码：612142
【语言】英文
【摘要】The U.S. economy has been undergoing long-run changes since the 1980s. This paper investigates the role of rising wealth inequality as a driving force for other prominent macroeconomic trends. I document that the rising wealth inequality since the 1980s can rationalize a large amount of concurrent trend-level changes in real interest rates, productivity growth rates, capital to income ratios, and consumption to wealth ratios. I highlight a channel from rising wealth inequality to reduced aggregate demand to the major macroeconomic changes through the lens of analytically tractable heterogeneous agent models.
