【主题】Real Effects of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing: A Housing Portfolio Channel
【报告人】马畅（复旦大学泛海国际金融学院助理教授）
【时间】4月21日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】We propose a new channel of transmission through which a central bank’s quantitative easing (QE) can affect local economic activity with segmented asset markets. In our model, a national financial intermediary responds to QE interventions by rebalancing its portfolio from bonds to housing. As a result, house prices increase and the total household portfolio return declines, boosting the economy by stimulating current consumption. The tighter the local housing supply, the stronger the consumption effects. We then investigate this channel empirically by employing German region-level data. Identification exploits the exogenous variation in land supply scarcity across regions to construct a measure of exposure to this housing portfolio channel. We find that the QE impact on GDP growth is more potent in regions with tighter land supply. We estimate that a one-standard-deviation increase in the size of the ECB’s balance sheet raises GDP growth in the most exposed areas by 10-20 basis points more per year than in the least exposed ones. A housing return decline caused by a QE intervention can fully account for this regional growth differential.
