【主题】“中国宏观经济形势分析与预测 ”年中报告暨2021全球高校经济学研究力评估发布会
【报告人】与会嘉宾
【时间】2021年7月11日
【地点】高等研究院502报告厅
【主题】“中国共产党百年经济思想与实践”学术研讨会
【报告人】与会嘉宾
【时间】2021年6月29日
【地点】高等研究院楼402报告厅
【主题】Long Live Confucius! The Persistent Effect of Confucianism on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China
【报告人】曹佳（中国人民大学应用经济学院讲师）
【时间】2021年6月22日（星期二）12:00-13:30
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼105室
【语言】英文
【摘要】The male-biased sex ratio imbalance draws lasting attention from researchers in distinct fields. We try to investigate this issue from a perspective of culture. We find that Confucianism, the cultural ideology that dominated Chinese people for almost 2000 years until the collapse of Qing dynasty (1636-1912), has a persistent and positive effect on the sex ratio imbalance in China. We use the distance to the nearest Zhu Xi Academy as an instrumental variable to identify the causal relationship of our finding. The potential channels through which Confucianism affects the sex ratio imbalance are also discussed. Specifically, Confucianism changes people’s perception of gender inequality, expands the gap between men’s and women's educational attainments, and strengthens the pattern of raising sons against aging, all leading to son preference and thus male-biased sex ratio imbalance. Our findings show that the long-term influence of Confucianism cannot be underestimated although it has not been the official ideology in China for more than one century.
【主题】2021上海应用经济学研讨会
【报告人】与会嘉宾
【时间】2021年6月18日-19日
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院
【主题】A Theory of Factor Shares Cycles
【报告人】朱礼军（北京大学助理教授）
【时间】2021年6月16日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】In US data factor shares have a strong and persistent medium run cyclical pattern: a phase when the labor share decreases is always followed by a labor share increasing phase. Labor share decline is typically associated with a fast-growing labor productivity, and slow-growing wage rate and working hours. We argue that this can be explained by a model of endogenous growth in which it is desirable to take advantage of an existing technology until diminishing returns make it profitable to move on to a new technology. In this model the endogenous interaction between relative factor prices and labor-saving innovations is the source of both long run growth and medium run cycles.
【主题】The Risk of Implicit Guarantees: Evidence from Shadow Banks in China
【报告人】黄宗博 香港中文大学（深圳）助理教授
【时间】2021年6月9日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】The shadow banking literature is anchored on the premise that shadow banking intensifies financial risks through its connection with regular banks. We document the importance of implicit guarantees as the risk transmission channel using a detailed micro-level data set on wealth management products, which are the most prominent shadow banking products in China. We find that when the risk perception of a bank increases, the bank extends stronger implicit guarantees to the investors of wealth management products to safeguard its reputation. Stronger guarantees incur more expenses and erode bank equity, thus amplifying impacts of negative shocks to the related regular banks. The expenses account for a significant reduction in bank profits, especially for banks that are less healthy. Our results suggest that risk-weights for off-balance-sheet exposures should be higher for riskier banks.
【主题】Supply Chain Management and Aggregate Fluctuations
【报告人】徐玏（上海交通大学安泰经管学院助理教授）
【时间】2021年6月2日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】Over the business cycle, firms adjust not only their input expenditures but also the number of suppliers from which they source. I incorporate this extensive margin into a real business cycle model. Using a dataset of supply chain relationships among US firms, I first document that increases in the number of suppliers are correlated with increases in intermediate input expenditures, total factor productivities, and costs of managing suppliers. Based on these facts, I develop a model in which firms trade off the productivity benefit (return to variety) of accessing more varieties with the (fixed) cost of managing these varieties. The extensive margin adjustment introduces a return to scale into production and amplifies productivity shocks: In my estimated model with multiple industries and a production network, the effect of industry productivity shocks on GDP fluctuations is one-fourth larger than in a (conventional) model where the extensive margin is absent.
【主题】上海财经大学高等研究院宏观经济学研讨会
【报告人】与会嘉宾
【时间】2021年5月29日-5月30日
【地点】高等研究院108会议室
【主题】The Paradox of Search Effort and Rational Labor Stampedes
【报告人】何超（华东师范大学助理教授）
【时间】2021年5月19日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】Standard labor search and matching models feature procyclical search intensity and quick recoveries. Both predictions are at odds with the US labor market after the Great Recession. This paper shows that in an otherwise standard model that incorporates multi-market simultaneous search, a temporary financial crisis can raise both search intensity and unemployment persistently, like a stampede to an unemployment trap—workers search harder but end up discouraging job creation—while the conventional wisdom says that search effort complements hiring. The observed productivity shocks, on the other hand, reduce search effort and do not cause such hysteresis.
【主题】“中国经济：理论与政策”系列讲座第25讲：Informal Institution Meets Child Development: Clan Culture and Child Labor in China
【报告人】赵忠（中国人民大学）
【时间】2021年5月13日（星期四）下午2:00
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼108室
【摘要】Using a national representative sample, the China Family Panel Studies, this paper makes the first attempt to explore the influences of clan culture which was a hallmark culture in Chinese history on the prevalence of child labor in China. We find that clan culture can significantly reduce the incidence of child labor, but clan culture exhibits strong boy bias. The results are driven by boys rather than girls, which reflect its patrilineal nature. Moreover, the impact is stronger for boys from households with lower socioeconomic status and in rural areas. Clan culture reduces the incidence of child labor through risk sharing and easing financial constraints, and helps form social norms to promote human capital investment. Specifically, clan culture can partly offset the exogenous negative shocks and increase the probability of getting aids, especially financial support, for a father of boy in the face of predicaments, and clan culture has increased study time and household educational expenditure for boys. Our results are robust to alternative measures of clan culture, model specifications, and sample selections.
【嘉宾简介】赵忠，教育部重要人才计划特聘教授，中国人民大学“杰出学者”特聘教授、博士生导师，中国人民大学劳动人事学院副院长、国发院劳动力市场研究中心主任，Journal of Population Economics期刊和China & World Economy期刊副主编。研究领域涉及劳动力市场、技术进步与就业、城乡移民、收入分配、社会保障、医疗与健康、微观计量经济学等。
【主题】Exporting from China: the Determinants of Trade Status
【报告人】鄢萍（北京大学国家发展研究院副教授）
【时间】2021年5月12日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】This paper studies the exporting decision of Chinese manufacturing firms. The economic framework stresses the dynamic decision by both state controlled and private entities to export in a model with labor adjustment costs. In this complex environment, a simple decision rule whereby export status depends only on current productivity does not hold. Nor does this rule match data patterns. The estimated model is used to understand the factors that influence export status. The analysis highlights the economic significance of labor adjustment costs in shaping both employment and trade dynamics.
【主题】Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China
【报告人】彭俞超（中央财经大学金融学院）
【时间】2021年4月28日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】China implemented Basel III in 2013 that increased the sensitivity of bank assets to risk-weighting. We study how the regulation changes have affected bank risktaking, using confidential loan-level data obtained from a large Chinese bank, merged with firm-level data. We use a difference-in-difference identification, exploiting the cross-sectional differences in bank lending behaviors between high-risk and low-risk bank branches before and after the new regulations. This identification approach is motivated by a theoretical model of bank portfolio choices. The model predicts that increasing risk-weighting sensitivity reduces bank risk-taking, both on average and conditional on monetary policy easing, with larger reductions in risk-taking for banks facing higher idiosyncratic risks. Consistent with theory, our evidence shows that bank branches—especially those with a relatively poor history of non-performing loans—responded to monetary policy easing by raising the share of lending to low-risk borrowers, and in particular, to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that receive high credit ratings under government guarantees despite their low productivity.
【嘉宾介绍】彭俞超，副教授，中央财经大学金融学院学术交流部主任，丝路金融研究中心执行主任，全国金融青联委员。研究方向：金融与实体经济、货币政策。近年来，在《经济研究》、《世界经济》、《经济学（季刊）》、《金融研究》、Journal of International Money and Finance、Journal of Business Ethics等国内外权威期刊发表论文40篇余篇。主持国家自然科学基金1项，博士后科学基金一等面上资助1项，参加国家级课题10余项。出版专著1本，主编、参编教材2本。
【主题】Short-term Gains, Long-term Loss: Unintended Consequences of China’s Land Reform on Education and Labor Market Outcomes
【报告人】张川川（浙江大学经济学院百人计划研究员、博导）
【时间】2021年4月27日（星期二）2:00-3:30 p.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】Studies find that land reform increases investment and household welfare through improving private rights protection. However, the literature overlooks the fact that land reform may decrease human capital investment because of the opportunity cost of time. Exploiting the county-by-county rollout of China’s land reform during 1978-1984, we show that land reform significantly decreases the likelihood of completing high school among rural children aged 13-17. Children switch out of school into farm work when the return to farming increase. We find no evidence that land reform decreases human capital investment before age 13. Approximately two decades later, children induced to engage in farm work are less likely to work in the nonagricultural sector and earn less than they would have had they stayed in school longer.
【嘉宾介绍】张川川，现任浙江大学经济学院百人计划研究员（A1类）、博士生导师。他2013年7月毕业于北京大学国家发展研究院，获经济学博士学位，2011-2012年于哈佛大学经济系和世界银行总部访学，2013年7月-2015年10月担任中央财经大学经济学院讲师，2015年11月破格晋升副教授，2020年10月起任职于浙江大学经济学院。他的研究兴趣为人口老龄化和社会保障、健康状况的决定因素及其影响、国际贸易与劳动力市场、文化与经济行为等。他的研究成果发表于《中国社会科学》、《经济研究》、《经济学季刊》，American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Demography, Health Economics, Journal of Population Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics等国内外期刊。研究成果曾获北京市哲学社会科学优秀成果奖一等奖、湖北省哲学社会科学优秀成果奖三等奖和《金融研究》年度最佳论文奖等奖项。
【主题】会议预告 | 上海财经大学2021年第一季度宏观经济数据分析研讨会
【报告人】上海财经大学高等研究院“中国宏观经济形势分析与预测”项目组
【时间】2021年4月23日13: 30-17 : 00
【地点】高等研究院105室
【主题】Real Effects of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing: A Housing Portfolio Channel
【报告人】马畅（复旦大学泛海国际金融学院助理教授）
【时间】2021年4月21日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【语言】英文
【摘要】We propose a new channel of transmission through which a central bank’s quantitative easing (QE) can affect local economic activity with segmented asset markets. In our model, a national financial intermediary responds to QE interventions by rebalancing its portfolio from bonds to housing. As a result, house prices increase and the total household portfolio return declines, boosting the economy by stimulating current consumption. The tighter the local housing supply, the stronger the consumption effects. We then investigate this channel empirically by employing German region-level data. Identification exploits the exogenous variation in land supply scarcity across regions to construct a measure of exposure to this housing portfolio channel. We find that the QE impact on GDP growth is more potent in regions with tighter land supply. We estimate that a one-standard-deviation increase in the size of the ECB’s balance sheet raises GDP growth in the most exposed areas by 10-20 basis points more per year than in the least exposed ones. A housing return decline caused by a QE intervention can fully account for this regional growth differential.
【主题】“中国经济：理论与政策”系列讲座第24讲： 限购与泡沫：政策的空间溢出及其对土地资源配置效率的含义
【报告人】陈钊（复旦大学）
复旦大学经济学院教授，中国社会主义市场经济研究中心常务副主任
【时间】2021年4月16日（星期五）2:00 PM
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼108室
【摘要】本文考察了始于大城市的住房限购政策对于住房市场泡沫的空间转移以及住宅用地出让空间布局的影响。我们发现，限购政策导致部分非限购城市房地产市场泡沫程度的加剧，并且商业住宅用地出让在政策实施后也向非限购城市倾斜。由于非限购城市经济活跃程度并没有因此增强，这就意味着限购政策效应的空间溢出不仅放大了泡沫转移可能造成的房地产市场风险，也加剧了土地资源的空间错配。
【嘉宾简介】陈钊，1973年生，浙江舟山人，复旦大学经济学院教授（2007），博士生导师，国务院政府特殊津贴获得者（2013），入选百千万人才工程国家级人选，人社部授予有突出贡献中青年专家荣誉称号（2013）。现任教育部人文社会科学百所重点研究基地复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心（China Centre for Economic Studies, CCES）常务副主任。主要研究兴趣涉及的学科领域包括：发展经济学（城乡与区域发展、户籍制度及其影响、不平等问题）、产业经济学（产业政策与产业发展、创新政策、环境规制）、国际经济学（跨国资本流动）。
【主题】The Driving Forces of China’s Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model with Housing and Banking
【报告人】刘岩（武汉大学金融系副教授）
武汉大学经济与管理学院金融系公司金融教研室主任，经济发展研究中心宏观经济研究所所长，大数据研究院金融大数据研究中心副主任。
【时间】2021年4月14日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼310室
【语言】英文
【摘要】We study the sources of China’s business cycles in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing and banking. The model replicates well the volatility and cyclicality of key macroeconomic variables observed in the past two decades in China. A host of shock decomposition exercises demonstrate that, in addition to the non-housing technology shock, both financial and housing shocks are the main driving forces of China’s business cycles, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the variations in most macroeconomic variables at the business cycle frequencies. In particular, the capital quality, housing demand, and loan-to-value shocks display prominent contributions to the business cycle fluctuations. Moreover, there exists substantial interactions between the banking and housing sectors in China, where the collateral constraint and the financial constraint amplify with each other. The results shed new light in the understanding of China’s business cycles, and provide guidelines to DSGE modeling on China’s macroeconomy.
【主题】Hidden Harmony
【报告人】俞宁（南京审计大学）南京审计大学社会与经济研究院教授、执行院长
【时间】2021年4月14日（星期三）9:30
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【摘要】It is difficult to reach a consensus on how to measure a social construct such as the harmony level of a group of people. To circumvent the difficulty, we develop “latent” binary quantile regression for settings in which the binary regressand is unobserved and proxied by multiple indicators (e.g., separate reports of whether a group is harmonious). We demonstrate how to identify and estimate parameters for conditional quantiles of the hidden outcome (e.g., group harmony level), prove the strong consistency of the estimator, and run Monte Carlo experiments to verify its finite-sample performance. Based on such a general-purpose method, we use high-quality survey data to uncover factors affecting the harmony levels within college dormitory rooms. The application is NASA-inspired: a scientific understanding of small group harmony improves the selection process for long-duration spaceflight crews. Among other findings, we discover that sleeping schedule discordance damages relationship.
【嘉宾简介】俞宁，男，1984年生，福建霞浦人，国家重要人才计划青年学者、江苏省特聘教授、南京审计大学社会与经济研究院执行院长。上海交通大学管理学学士、硕士和博士；斯坦福大学经济学硕士、博士。曾担任埃默里大学助理教授等职务。在American Economic Review、Journal of Economic Theory、Journal of Econometrics等19种国际期刊上发表论文，为25种国际期刊担任匿名审稿人。获2020年中国信息经济学乌家培奖、江苏省哲学社会科学一等奖等。主持多项国家级科研项目；兼任中国信息经济学会学术委员会委员、理事。
【主题】The Factor Structure of Disagreement (joint with Ed Herbst)
【报告人】Fabian Winkler（美国联邦储蓄委员会经济学家）
【时间】2021年3月24日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【参会链接】 https://zoom.com.cn/j/65037561974 密码：110699
【语言】英文
【摘要】We estimate a three-dimensional dynamic factor model on individual forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters using full-information Bayesian methods. The factors extract the most important dimensions along which disagreement comoves across variables. We interpret our results through a general semi-structural model where heterogeneous expectations arise from dispersed information. Up until the Great Moderation, disagreement about the supply side of the economy dominates, while in recent decades and particularly during the Great Recession, disagreement about the demand side has become more important. Disagreement about monetary policy shocks seems to play a minor role in the data. Our findings can serve to discipline structural models of heterogeneous expectations.
【主题】Every People’s Commune Builds a Middle School: The Effects of a Massive Rural Education Expansion Program in Pre-reform China
【报告人】陈祎（上海科技大学副教授）
【时间】2021年3月2日（星期二）3:00-4:40 p.m.
【地点】上海财经大学高等研究院楼232室
【参会链接】 https://zoom.com.cn/j/61866422214 密码：636746
【语言】英文
【摘要】Prior to its Reform and Opening Policy, China achieved a level of secondary-school education unparalleled by its level of economic development. This study aims to understand the pre-reform formation of China’s human capital by looking at a massive rural school construction program in which the number of secondary schools increased tenfold from 19,367 in 1965 to 198,963 in 1977. Using a county-level dataset compiled from local gazetteers and population censuses, we show strong evidence that the program significantly improved the education attainment of rural children. Such a rapid expansion was associated with a deterioration in education quality, but the presence of sent-down educated youths during that period helped mitigate the negative trade-off in quantity and quality. Further analysis indicates that the rural school program contributed to the improvement in agricultural productivity.
