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上海日报 | Shanghai consumer, investor confidence stays positive

发布日期:2022-07-15设置

编者按:7月6日,上海财经大学高等研究院在线发布《2022中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年中报告》。报告主题为“以更大的力度深化改革开放稳住经济大盘”,梳理了上半年在地缘政治冲突加剧、全球滞胀风险上升、新冠肺炎疫情反复等国际国内复杂局面下的中国宏观经济形势走势,并对中国经济如何应对新的下行压力,真正实现短期稳住经济大盘和中长期可持续高质量发展目标,进行了分析研判。中国人民银行调查统计司原司长盛松成,上海社会科学院经济研究所所长沈开艳,香港中文大学(深圳)经管学院教授王健,野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺,环亚数字经济研究院首席经济学家、东盟经济研究院院长李文龙,上海昶元投资管理有限公司总经理张秋等嘉宾,上海财经大学高等研究院院长、中国宏观经济形势分析与预测课题组负责人田国强,首席专家黄晓东等课题组成员,高等研究院副院长林立国出席发布会,来自金融机构、媒体等各行各业听众18000余人通过中国金融信息中心新华社现场云和微信视频号、哔哩哔哩直播、Zoom视频会议等多元化平台参加发布会

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媒体报道

NEWS

Despite fall, Shanghai consumer, investor confidence stays positive


来源:Shanghai Daily   记者:Huang Yixuan

Shanghai's consumer and investor confidence both fell but stayed generally positive in the second quarter of this year, according to a latest survey.


The Shanghai University of Finance and Economics' quarterly Consumer Confidence in Shanghai Index tumbled 12.7 points from the first quarter of 2022 to 104.4 points, and was 17.4 points lower than a year earlier.


The university's Index of Investor Confidence was 108 points, edging down 1.46 points from the previous quarter and 17.54 points lower from the same period last year.


For both indexes, a reading above 100 signifies optimism. Below 100 indicates pessimism.


The slump in consumer confidence can be mainly attributed to the two-month lockdown in Shanghai over the recent COVID-19 resurgence, which heightened residents' concerns over the economy, employment and income trends, said Xu Guoxiang, director of the university's Applied Statistics Research Center.


Meanwhile, the grim international economic situation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the intensified international geopolitical competition all led to huge uncertainties and challenges in the global economy, Xu added.


The sub-index for consumers' evaluation of Shanghai's economy plunged 23.2 points from the first quarter to 124.09 points, a slump of 25.6 points from a year earlier.


But boosted by the orderly resumption of production and work, consumers were upbeat on future economic development (whose sub-index scored 124.1 points) than their evaluation of the current economic situation, Xu noted, expecting consumer confidence to rebound with economic recovery.


Their evaluation index of income, however, dived sharply to a record low of 91 points, the second time it has fallen below 100.


The sub-index of purchase intentions was the one that changed the least, shedding 2 points from the previous quarter to 89.7 points in April-June.


Among them, the intention to buy cars and durables saw quarter-on-quarter gains of 5.2 points and 13.8 points, respectively, to 90 points and 111.9 points, as the pandemic, to some extent, led to higher demand for such products.


The index of home-buying intentions, however, plummeted 24.8 points on the quarter while falling 17.8 points from a year earlier.